Better Rookie Campaign: Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin III - Brendan Darr's Blog

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Brendan Darr's Blog

Better Rookie Campaign: Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin III Stuck

Posted on August 21, 2012 at 12:34 PM.

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Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III.

These two will forever be linked, whether they like it or not. Being the first two picks in the draft will have these two being compared all season, fairly or unfairly.

Before the pre-season started I would have said hands down that Robert Griffin III would have the better rookie season. Griffin III has the overall better team around him, but certain aspects of the offense might struggle this season.

Meanwhile, Luck has looked every bit the part of the first overall pick so far this preseason. I say this even after his two interception performance against Pittsburgh. I thought the lack of weapons around him would be an issue, but it is possible he can overcome that.

Just to be clear, this is just a guess for their rookie years. I'm certainly not willing to comment on who will have the better career. Although, to be honest, it would be better for everyone if they both end up with a bronze bust in Canton, Ohio.

Offensive Line:

RGIII: Washington's OL is a mess now, and I think that is being kind. Starting Right Tackle Jammal Brown may be out of the year from what I've heard. LG Kory Lichtensteiger will miss the rest of preseason. LT Trent Williams is a drug test away from a year away from football.

Luck: Indianapolis is revamping their offensive line, and while they are bigger -- for sure -- it will take time for them to adjust. Indy brought in a few retreads from other teams. I like the addition of Samson Satele, but Winston Justice and Mike McGlynn are questionable.

Advantage: RGIII, but only because of his speed.

Running Game:

RGIII: Griffin III will certainly see a few different guys lining up behind or next to him this season. The Redskins could use up to four Running Backs this year, all with their particular set of skills. Unfortunately, it looks like Roy Helu and Tim Hightower are injured. Leaving just former sixth-round picks Evan Royster (2011) and Alfred Morris (2012). Morris seems to be the sleeper here, and from all reports at camp seems to be the most complete that are not named Hightower.

Luck: Just like the Redskins, it looks like the Colts could have as many as four Running Backs competing for carries. Donald Brown is the leader in the clubhouse here, and seems to have set himself apart. However, Mewelde Moore, Delone Carter and Vick Ballard all could be in line for carries as well. Moor is a solid third-down back, but is dealing with an injury.

Advantage: Luck, barely, but Brown has a defined role atop the depth chart, whereas there is uncertainty in Washington.

Receiving Targets:

RGIII: Washington went and got some targets for their inexperienced signal caller. The Redskins added Pierre Garcon and Josh Morgan in the off-season and converted Wide Receiver Niles Paul to Tight End in the hopes to add another dimension to the offense. Garcon and Morgan join the experienced Santana Moss and the high-upside of Leonard Hankerson. Dezmon Briscoe, Aldrick Robinson, Anthony Armstrong and Brandon Banks are battling for the final two spots.

At Tight End, the Redskins have a young playmaker in Fred Davis, as well as a wily vet in Chris Cooley. Rumors are swirling that Cooley may be cut, but I wouldn't buy into that. Niles Paul has struggled in the preseason while he adjusts to Tight End. Logan Paulsen is the best blocker of the bunch, and seems to be a good locker room guy.

Luck: Unfortunately for Luck, Garcon decided he'd rather catch balls from Griffin. On the plus side, Reggie Wayne decided to return, but outside of him the Wide Receiver position is pretty barren. Austin Collie is still around, and will be elevated to #2. LaVonn Brazill, the unknown of the group starts off at number three on the depth chart. The comeback story of Donnie Avery is nice, but it will be tough to prove he is all the way back. T.Y. Hilton is a nice developmental prospect and returner.

The Colts invested heavily in the Tight End position adding Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen in the second and third rounds this year in the draft. Both project very highly, but obviously we'll have to wait and see.

Advantage: RGIII, this category isn't nearly as close.

Schedule:

RGIII: Faces the other NFC East teams twice, plus five other playoff teams. Carolina and Tampa Bay won't be easy either.

Luck: Gets to face Jacksonville and Tennessee twice. Does face four playoff teams outside of Houston.

Advantage: Luck

Overall:

I think both Quarterbacks will have above-average rookie seasons, but I think Robert Griffin III has a slight edge. While the schedule is tougher, his ability to run will help cover offensive line deficiencies, while an improvement to the targets around him will help ease in his transition. Meanwhile, Luck will be breaking in a new Offensive Line and almost all new weapons around him. Yes, the schedule is easier, but the lack of talent around him may slow him down this season.

Early Predictions:

RGIII: 59% Completion Percentage, 3,400 yards passing, 450 yards rushing, 25 total touchdowns (4 rushing), 15 Interceptions. Skins finish 6-10.

Luck: 61% Completion Percentage, 3,500 yards passing, 19 total touchdowns (1 rushing), 16 Interceptions. Colts finish 4-12.

Comments

# 1 Rep Illuminati @ Aug 21

Nice article. I think RGIII will have a slight advantage in stats and wins.

# 2 JerzeyReign @ Aug 21

Nice article. I think they both will have pretty solid rookie seasons with Luck having the better year. RGIII has to go up against a tough division that'll probably damper his stats/impact by a bunch. Plus, Luck has been making some beautiful "NFL QB" throws early on in this preseason.

# 3 AiDub @ Aug 21

I think those touchdowns and interception predictions need to be flipped sans the rushing TDs. Luck has the weapons. He has a great TE in Fleener who he already has chemistry with. Donald Brown may be an unknown but he's a dual threat. He can run a bit but he's also good catching the ball out of the backfield. Reggie Wayne will also be a good mentor to the young receivers. And Pierre Garcon isn't much to write home about for the Skins. Yes, he'll make a few big catches but he'll have many more poor drops as well. He was never consistent in Indianapolis and that was with Peyton Manning throwing to him. IMO I think Luck has the edge just by watching how he is handling the preseason.

# 4 Joobieo @ Aug 21

I think RG3 will have better stats but will lose more games . Is that really having a better season ? Well I'm not sure Cam Newton last year had more TDs than Andy Dalton , but Andy made it to the playoffs . Mmm decisions .

# 5 THE YAMA @ Aug 21

Very interesting article. I believe RG3 will have better stats and overall wins. Mainly because he has more to work with right now in Washington. Both guys, I think, will be perennial all-pro type players.

# 6 everydaygorship @ Aug 22

It's a good thing to have to choose between them, but I like Luck's overall game better. Griffin has more wins, Luck has better passing stats.

# 7 CoRRuPTMiND93 @ Aug 22

I believe Andrew Luck is a better passer than RG3 at this point in his career, so Luck will probably have the better year Stat wise.
As far as win/loss, I think RG3 will have the better year. Washington has a better defense than Indy, and IF (and this is a big if) our O-Line can hold up, The Redskins have some talent at receiver and Tight End, to be able to air it out.
I think we all knew that Luck was the more "pro ready" quarterback coming out of the draft, but RG3 has the arm, speed, smarts, and work ethic to become a serious threat in the NFL. And his mindset on not wanting to rely on his legs is, as a skins fan, music to my ears.
I don't expect RG3 or Luck to do what Cam did, and i Ultimately believe throughout Luck and RG3's careers, they'll be in the upper tier of quarterbacks in the NFL. Both will be pro bowlers, and both may win superbowls. (Luck vs RG3 superbowl anyone???

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